The Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA) estimated North Korea gained about $20 billion from the ongoing war in Ukraine. On Monday, KIDA released a report titled “Economic Impacts and Strategic Responses to Russia–North Korea Military Cooperation.”
The report’s author, senior analyst Park Yonghan, warned that the military alliance between Russia and North Korea poses a major threat to the Korean Peninsula and the wider Northeast Asian region. He said it also harms global geopolitics, especially in Ukraine.
Park added that North Korea maintained its “deal with the devil” with Russia during the war in Ukraine and earned an estimated $20 billion. He warned that future cooperation could let North Korea acquire technology for strategic weapons, including nuclear-powered submarines, or gain advanced arms, such as fighter jets, to boost its military power.
The $20 billion economic benefit includes about $275 million from troop deployment, about $19 billion from material aid such as ammunition, and around $620 million from technical assistance.
The report reveals that Russia pays North Korean soldiers in Ukraine about $2,000 per month plus a one-time bonus. However, North Korean authorities intercept the payments and give only a fraction to the deployed troops.
Park noted that the $20 billion could ease North Korea’s chronic food shortages and cover its food deficit for up to 33 years.
He added that the North Korean regime will unlikely use the funds to improve living conditions. Instead, it may produce and launch about 700 long-range missiles, each costing around $28.5 million, or cover elite luxury expenses, estimated at $1.7 billion per year, for over a decade.
Park predithat North Korea may use its military ties with Russia to obtain items it cannot access through conventional means.
He explained that North Korea could demand advanced 4th-generation or higher fighter jets. Since the 2000s, North Korea has tried to modernize its outdated air force. South Korea’s deployment of 5th-generation F-35A fighters has widened the air power gap even more.
He continued that Russia may not meet such requests now due to wartime supply limits but could agree to future deliveries once its capabilities recover after the conflict.
Park also suggested that North Korea may seek Russian help to develop satellite payloads, including high-performance optical gear. He expects North Korea to request technology and equipment to improve its weak air defense systems. He added that North Korea may rely on Russia’s support to strengthen its supply of critical war materials, including pharmaceuticals, which are difficult to produce due to its lack of technological capability.
The analyst also pointed to a higher risk of Russian involvement on the Korean Peninsula if a crisis occurs.
Park stated that this military cooperation raises the risk of Russian involvement in Korean Peninsula affairs during future conflicts. Just as North Korea aids Russia in the Ukraine war, Russia could supply arms or even send troops to support North Korea. In cases of instability, such as a sudden regime change, the alliance could help Kim retain power.
